The Google search experience and performance has fundamentally shifted since our January analysis on how Google’s AI Overviews (AIOs) are impacting our click-through-rate (CTR). While we continue to study the impact of AI search on SEO traffic, it’s clear that your users are still searching on Google most of the time – but the impact of that search volume on your business has changed.
This updated study tracks how AI Overviews continue to impact search behavior over the first 3 quarters of 2025 and the patterns we’re seeing that validate, and that challenge what we thought we knew about AIOs on Google and their impact on CTRs across both organic and paid.
Back in January 2025, we found that organic CTR plummeted from 1.41% to 0.64% for queries with AI Overviews, while paid CTR dropped across the board regardless of AIO presence. Now, with nine months of additional data, we can see whether those trends accelerated, stabilized, or reversed, and what that means for your search strategy heading into 2026.
Methodology
For this study, we’ve analyzed informational and educational queries, most vulnerable to AIOs, from June 2024 through September 2025. That’s 3,119 search terms across 42 client organizations and 25.1M organic impressions and 1.1M paid impressions tracked in this period. The Queries are then categorized by (1) AIO presence, as in whether an AIO is served to the searcher, and (2) AI citation, as in whether or not the brand was cited or mentioned in the AIO itself. A data caveat: All CTR percentages represent monthly averages across the query set. Read the full methodology below.
Is the Original Hypothesis True?
In January we hypothesized that AI Overviews will significantly affect CTRs for both organic and paid search and that the impact will vary based on (1) the query type and (2) AI Overview citations. This was absolutely confirmed. And that impact is even more severe than we predicted. AIOs dramatically impact CTRs, and citation matters. When you are cited in an AIO, you get 35% more organic clicks and 91% more paid clicks compared to when you are not cited at all.
When we compare Q3 2025 year-over-year performance:
Queries where AIO is present but you aren’t cited:
- Organic CTR: 0.52% (down 65.2% YoY)
- Paid CTR: 4.14% (down 78.4% YoY)
Queries where AIO is present and you ARE cited:
- Organic CTR: 0.70% (down 49.4% YoY)
- Paid CTR: 7.89% (down 53.9% YoY)
Queries where no AIO appears:
- Organic CTR: 1.45% (down 46.2% YoY)
- Paid CTR: 13.88% (down 20.1% YoY)
Important caveat: We cannot definitively prove that citation causes higher CTRs, it’s equally possible that brands with stronger authority and higher baseline CTRs are simply more likely to be cited by Google’s AI. What we can say with confidence is that queries where you’re cited consistently outperform those where you’re not, regardless of the causal direction.
Emerging trend: Here’s what we didn’t predict: even queries WITHOUT AIOs are declining significantly in CTRs, suggesting broader shifts in search behavior beyond just AI Overview presence.
What did we miss?
Has Organic CTR for Non-AIO Queries Remained High? No, and this is where our January analysis got it wrong.
In January, we reported that organic CTR was increasing for queries where AI Overviews did not appear, suggesting these queries offered “untapped opportunities.” But, the extended data tells a different story.
The full trajectory for non-AIO queries:
- June 2024: 2.72%
- Peak (February 2025): 3.14%
- September 2025: 1.62%
- Overall decline: 41%
While these queries briefly showed growth through early 2025, they’ve since declined dramatically. They’re still outperforming AIO queries by 166% (1.62% vs 0.61%), but they’re not the safe harbor we thought they were.
This suggests broader forces are at work beyond just AI Overviews. Users are likely seeking answers in other places before Google like ChatGPT, Perplexity, social platforms, or going directly to trusted brands. Even when AIOs don’t dominate the SERP, traditional organic results are struggling to maintain click-through rates for informational or educational queries.
But Have Queries with AIOs Always Had Lower CTR?
Yes, and this finding challenges one of our initial assumptions about causation.
Looking at every single data point from June 2024 through September 2025, queries that triggered an AI Overview in September 2025 have consistently shown lower CTRs than non-AIO queries for every month in our analytical date range.
June 2024 baseline:
- Queries WITHOUT AIOs: 2.74% organic CTR
- Queries WITH AIOs: 1.76% organic CTR
- Gap: 1.18 percentage points
September 2025 current state:
- Queries WITHOUT AIOs: 1.62% organic CTR
- Queries WITH AIOs: 0.61% organic CTR
- Gap: 1.01 percentage points
- Note: These are monthly snapshots showing the starting and ending points of our 15-month tracking period. Q3 aggregates are shown in the earlier section.
This suggests that AIOs aren’t “randomly appearing” on high-performing queries and then destroying their CTR. Instead, AIOs are consistently surfacing on query types that were already generating fewer clicks, most likely informational searches where users historically found their answer without clicking, similar to the featured snippet pattern we saw years ago.
For Queries Where AIOs Do Appear, How Have CTRs Trended?
The decline has been relentless, with a particularly concerning pattern emerging in mid-2025.
Organic CTR for AIO Queries
- June 2024: 1.76%
- Lowest point (July 2025): 0.57%
- September 2025: 0.61%
- Overall decline: 61%
The organic CTR for queries with AIOs has been cut by nearly two-thirds. The decline was steady through the first year, then appears to have bottomed out around 0.6% in summer 2025. Whether this represents a new stable baseline or just a temporary plateau remains to be seen, but at current rates, these queries are delivering less than half a click per 100 impressions.
Paid CTR for AIO Queries
This is where things get really interesting and potentially alarming.
- June 2024: 19.70%
- July 2025: 3.26%
- September 2025: 6.34%
- Overall decline: 68%
The paid CTR story includes month-over-month decreases where CTR went from approximately 11% down to 3% in a single month. While there’s been a slight recovery to 6.34% by September, paid CTR is still down 68% from the starting baseline.
This July drop is striking and raises important questions. Could be related to a major SERP layout change that pushed ads further down on AIO-heavy queries, or maybe there’s an element of users learning that ads on informational queries rarely provide the educational content they’re seeking. Whatever the cause, if you’re running paid campaigns on informational keywords where AIOs appear, you’re now capturing a fraction of the clicks you were getting just over a year ago.
Did Paid CTRs Continue to Decrease Across the Board?
Yes, and the CTR decline on informational queries is undeniable.
Paid CTR for Queries WITHOUT AIOs
- June 2024: 19.1%
- September 2025: 13.04%
- Decline: 32%
Even on SERPs where AI Overviews aren’t competing for attention, paid ads on high-funnel queries are seeing significant CTR erosion. This supports our earlier hypothesis about broader search behavior moving towards other platforms for broader questions.
Paid CTR for Queries WITH AIOs
- June 2024: 19.70%
- July 2025: 3.26%
- September 2025: 6.34%
- Decline: 68%
The gap between AIO and non-AIO paid CTR has more than doubled from the starting point. In June 2024, queries with and without AIOs had similar paid CTRs (around 18-19%). By September 2025, non-AIO queries are delivering 13.04% while AIO queries scrape by at 6.34%, a 7 percentage point gap.
The data is clear: high-funnel paid search is struggling, but AIOs accelerate the decline in CTR dramatically. Your cost-per-click may not have changed, but your efficiency likely cratered.
Does an AIO Citation Still Improve CTRs?
Still a resounding yes, and the citation advantage is even more pronounced than we initially observed.
When You DON’T Have an AIO Citation
- Organic CTR: 0.52%
- Paid CTR: 4.14%
- Year-over-year organic decline: 46.2%
- Year-over-year paid decline: 33.3%
When You DO Have an AIO Citation
- Organic CTR: 1.2%
- Paid CTR: 11.05%
- Year-over-year organic decline: 40.1%
- Year-over-year paid decline: 33.3%
The Citation Advantage
When your brand is cited in the AI Overview:
- 35% higher organic CTR (0.70% vs 0.52%, based on Q3 2025 average)
- 91% higher paid CTR (7.89% vs 4.14%, based on Q3 2025 average)
This finding reinforces what we saw in January but with even starker contrasts. The gap between having and not having an AIO citation has become more pronounced as the overall CTR expectations deteriorate. Getting featured in AIO citations isn’t just about visibility, both paid and organic clicks are higher when cited. Is this due to more relevant queries or strong brand awareness? It’s likely a combination of multiple factors. If Google’s AI thinks you’re worth citing, perhaps there’s already clear authority signals beyond the SERP.
One possible explanation: AIO presence, paid CTR, and organic CTR may all reflect underlying brand authority and EEAT signals rather than having direct causal relationships. Brands that rank well, get cited in AIOs, and earn high CTRs may simply share common characteristics that Google’s algorithms recognize. We cannot verify this hypothesis with our current dataset, but it aligns with Google’s stated emphasis on authoritative sources.
What This Means for Your Strategy
Our concern that CTRs would be impacted by AI Overviews is the new normal. We’re 15 months into tracking this data, and the trend lines aren’t flattening in a way that suggests stability. Organic CTRs for informational queries with AIOs are down 61%. Paid CTRs crashed 65%. Even queries without AIOs are seeing 25-41% declines.
The biggest correction from our January analysis: queries without AI Overviews are NOT increasing in CTR, they’re just declining slower. While they still outperform AIO queries significantly (1.62% vs 0.61% organic CTR), they’ve lost 41% of their click-through rate year-over-year when comparing September 2025 to September 2024.
If you’ve been waiting for things to settle down or for CTRs to bounce back, the data is telling you to stop waiting. This is the new baseline, and it’s likely to continue with similar volatility.
People do not have less questions. The data suggests that users are changing how and where they ask questions both in google and in LLMs. So, your SEO strategy cannot rely on changing your targeting to avoid AIOs, you’ll need a strategy that reframes your KPI as maintaining your share and visibility, rather than simply driving traffic.
So What Do I Do Now?
I’m a VP / CMO – What Do I Do?
A couple of new recommendations come to light for the marketing leader. First, instead of avoiding AIOs, you’ll want to treat AIO citations as your competitive moat. Your share, authority, and that CTR boost are one of the few remaining ways to maintain competitive separation. This is shifting that focus from traditional rankings and traffic, to authority and brand visibility.
Second, question your traditional paid strategy: is paying for informational queries still valuable? At 6.34% CTR for AIO queries in September 2025 (down from 19.70% in June 2024), your cost-per-click may not have changed, but your efficiency is only going to get worse. For many, high funnel paid search isn’t working.
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Allocate budget to AI tracking |
Tools like ZipTie, Seer’s Generative AI tracker, and others are now essential infrastructure, not optional monitoring. You need real-time visibility into AIO presence and citation. |
✅ Still Valid |
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Re-evaluate KPIs immediately |
This is no longer optional. Your teams have lost 40-65% of their ability to drive clicks year-over-year, regardless of how well they execute. If you’re still measuring success primarily by traffic and clicks, you’re setting your teams up to fail and miss the real wins they’re achieving. Keep sight of new KPIs: share of voice in AI citations, branded search lift, and assisted conversions. |
✅ Make More Urgent |
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Diversify off Google aggressively |
Even queries WITHOUT AI Overviews are seeing 32-41% CTR declines. This isn’t just an AIO problem, this is a fundamental shift in how users approach information-seeking. Determine how much budget is allocated to top-of-funnel awareness campaigns on search and consider testing alternative channels (AI platforms, social search, direct traffic programs) in 2026. |
✅ Add Specificity |
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Bust the silos |
Find AIOs you don’t rank for and make sure your advertising, PR, and content teams are coordinating to help the SEO team. The correlation between AIO citation and higher CTRs is too significant to ignore, this requires cross-functional alignment. |
✅ Still Valid |
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Treat AIO citations as a competitive moat |
The CTR boost and authority signals of AIO citation represent one of the few remaining ways to maintain competitive separation in search. Invest in the content quality, domain authority, and structured data needed to become a source Google’s AI trusts and cites. |
⚡ NEW |
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Question your traditional paid strategy |
Paying for informational queries could be tanking your efficiency. Even though your CPC may stay the same, run an ROI analysis on whether those campaigns justify your budget for high-funnel paid search – or if those dollars would be better spent diversifying off Google, for example. |
⚡ NEW |
I’m a Search Consultant / Content Marketer – What Do I Do?
Prepare for continued erosion, not stabilization. The data shows no signs of CTR recovery. Both AIO and non-AIO queries are in sustained decline. Build your 2026 strategy around the assumption that CTRs for high-funnel queries will be 20-30% lower than today assuming the current 6-month decline rate (14% for non-AIO, 8% for AIO from stable baseline) continues through 2026 with 30% deceleration as floor effects emerge. Use budget from AIO-laden queries to test other ad platforms and focus on lower-funnel searches on Google.
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Focus on query segmentation |
Identify which queries in your vertical are prone to AIOs and analyze their historical CTR patterns. If this query showed featured snippets pre-AIO, it was likely already a low-click, visibility-play topic. |
✅ Still Valid |
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Optimize for AIO presence aggressively |
Owning an AIO citation may provide both a paid and organic CTR advantage. If an AIO appears for your key queries and you’re not in it, you’re essentially invisible. Make GEO optimization a top priority, not a nice-to-have. |
✅ Strengthen This |
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Prioritize non-AIO queries strategically |
While organic CTR for non-AIO queries has declined 41% year-over-year, they still outperform AIO queries by 166% (1.62% vs 0.61%). These queries are your relative safe haven, but expect to maintain share of voice instead of growth. This analysis covers only informational/educational queries. Your results may differ if you operate in different query types (commercial, transactional, local). Review your own query-level performance before making major strategy shifts. |
❌ Major Correction |
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Monitor paid CTR trends closely |
Paid CTR for non-AIO queries declined 32% year-over-year, but AIO queries saw a catastrophic 65% decline. Investigate whether SERP layout changes or user behavior shifts are also impacting your paid CTRs. |
✅ Add Context |
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Consider AIO-specific optimizations |
Explore structured data, authoritative content, and partnerships to increase the likelihood of AIO inclusion. Focus on becoming a trusted source that Google’s AI wants to cite. |
✅ Still Valid |
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Prepare for continued erosion |
With or without AIOs, CTRs are in a sustained decline. Assume that high-funnel queries will continue to lower, giving you the opportunity to test new ad platforms and lower-funnel searches on Google |
⚡ NEW |
What We’re Watching for 2026
As we head into Q4 2025 and early 2026, this will continue to evolve.
- Bet: Paid CTRs on information queries will not improve
- What we’ll track: Will the paid CTR drop reverse or persist? Was this a permanent structural change in SERP layouts, or a temporary anomaly that will course-correct?.
- Bet: CTRs will continue to decline as much as .5% by January 2026
- What we’ll track: Is 0.6% the floor for organic CTR on AIO queries? We’ve seen stabilization around this level for three months, but does this represent a new baseline or will declines continue?
- Bet: AIOs will spread to commercial and transactional queries
- What we’ll track: How does CTR performance differ for other search intents? Our dataset focuses on informational queries, but as AIOs spread to commercial and transactional searches, will we see similar CTR impacts?
- Bet: AIO presence for informational queries will increase, searches that didn’t show an AIO in Jan’25 or Sept’25 will show them by January 2026
- What we’ll track: Did AIO presence on information queries continue to grow?
- Bet: Non-AIO query CTSs will continue to decline due to fundamental shifts in user behavior that extend beyond just AIOs.
- What we’ll track: Will non-AIO query CTRs stabilize or continue declining? The 41% decline so far suggests that we might be onto something…
We’ll check back in on this data in Q1 2026 to see whether any of these trends persist. Based on 15 months of consistent decline across nearly every metric, I’m not optimistic about a rebound since the search landscape is fundamentally different than it was 18 months ago.
Resources & Further Reading
Full Methodology Breakdown
We’ve analyzed a subset of the dataset from our original study (informational and educational queries most vulnerable to AI Overviews) from June 2024 through September 2025:
- 3,119 search terms across 42 client organizations
- Keywords from the original January 2025 analysis were excluded if they: (1) dropped out of top 20 rankings, (2) lacked organic or paid data for every month from June 2024 to September 2025 for consistent performance comparison, or (3) were no longer a client
- 25.1M organic impressions and 1.1M paid impressions tracked in this period
- The paid impression sample (1.1M) is significantly smaller than organic (25.1M) because informational queries have lower commercial intent, and some clients don’t run paid campaigns on these query types. This represents a limitation for the paid analysis. Findings are directionally consistent but have wider confidence intervals than organic.
- Data sources: Google Search Console (organic), Google Ads (paid), SeerSignals (September 2025 AIO presence), ZipTie (historical AIO presence)
- Queries categorized by: AIO presence (yes/no) and AIO citation (owned/not owned)
- Queries are categorized based on September 2025 AIO presence, meaning we’re comparing the 15-month CTR trajectory of queries that eventually showed AIOs versus those that did not. We are not claiming AIOs were present for all 15 months. We’re analyzing whether query types that are now AIO-prone always had different CTR patterns. This is a retrospective cohort analysis, not a month-by-month correlation study.
- Data Caveat: All CTR percentages represent monthly averages across the query set. Individual query CTRs vary significantly (standard deviations of 0.8-1.2 percentage points for organic, 3-5 percentage points for paid), so results for specific queries or industries may differ from these aggregate findings.
