(One might actually happen)
“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” — Yogi Berra
“Pundits should always be ignored” — Warren Buffett
Warning: this does not follow my usual newsletter format. Today, we’re embracing chaos and having fun with wild predictions.
We’re entering the season of annual prediction posts. You know them…the ones confidently declaring that ‘AI will transform everything’ or ‘sustainability will be key’ and other shocking insights that have apparently been true every year since 2010.
So, instead of adding to that pile, I decided to embrace the absurdity of forecasting and go full moonshot. Here are 21 highly specific, probably wrong, but entirely measurable predictions for 2025. They’re designed with a simple goal: if even one comes true, it would signal a fascinating shift in how we travel.
Why 21? Because as Linus Pauling said, ‘The best way to have a good idea is to have lots of ideas.’ And the best way to be right about the future is to make enough specific predictions that probability works in your favor.
Before we dive in, I’d like to thank Propellic for sponsoring this newsletter
Get Ahead of Your 2025 Travel Marketing Plan! Download the U.S. Consumer Trends: Five Ways to Optimize Your Marketing Strategy white paper from Propellic and PhocusWire to discover key insights and trends that will elevate your campaigns for the year ahead. Unlock actionable strategies to refine your approach and drive results. Click here to download the white paper
And now, here are Travel Tech Essentialist’s 2025 predictions…
-
Three major cities will launch “tourist-free zones” accessible only to verified residents and their guests, creating a secondary market for guest passes worth >$50 million
-
A luxury hotel group will replace points with NFT-based ‘membership tokens’, achieving >$100 million in secondary market trading volume
-
A major cruise line will announce a permanent residence program, selling 1000+ ‘lifetime cabins’ as primary homes
-
An Asian travel company will acquire a European OTA with >€2 billion market cap.
-
A travel company will pioneer “empathy pricing,” where prices fluctuate based on customer circumstances (not just demand), increasing revenue by 25% while improving satisfaction scores
-
Two competing airline alliances will merge their loyalty programs into a single blockchain-based currency
-
A corporate travel platform will launch ‘inverse bidding’ where employees earn 50% of savings below budget, reaching $100 million in employee payouts
-
An airline will launch a subscription service bundling flights + workspace access, reaching 2 million subscribers
-
A travel company will introduce “memorable insurance” – guaranteeing memorable experiences or your money back – covering $100 million in bookings
-
At least one major European city will launch a combined digital nomad visa + guaranteed housing program, attracting 30,000+ participants
-
Travel tech funding in India/SE Asia will exceed US travel tech funding for the first time
-
A major airport will convert 30% of its parking space into ‘micro-hotels’, achieving higher revenue per square foot than parking
-
A major airline will launch “social seating” where passengers can bid to sit next to interesting people (celebrities, experts, etc.), generating $50 million in new revenue
-
A startup founded in 2025 in Saudi Arabia or UAE will hit a $2 billion valuation by year-end with under 50 employees, becoming the highest-valued travel startup founded in 2025
-
A major hotel brand will eliminate star ratings, replacing them with experience or lifestyle categories, driving 20% higher ADR
-
A university will launch a ‘borderless semester’ program with guaranteed housing/workspace in 4 global cities, enrolling >1000 students
-
The first fully autonomous hotel (zero human staff, using robots for cleaning and maintenance) will achieve higher NPS guest satisfaction scores than traditional luxury hotels
-
A travel advisor marketplace platform will reach $1 billion in bookings with over 10,000 independent advisors, proving the ‘creator economy’ model works in luxury travel
-
The first travel company will eliminate traditional customer service, replacing it with AI + human verification, reducing customer service costs by 85% while achieving <1% escalation rates
-
A luxury hotel will convert an entire 200+ room property to 4-hour booking blocks, achieving 40% higher RevPAR vs. the previous year
-
The first “anti-resort” will open, charging premium prices ($2000+/night) for deliberately basic accommodations in remote locations, reaching 90% occupancy
I’d love to hear which ones resonate with you. Let’s play a game. Please vote for…
-
Question 1: Which prediction(s) do you think will most likely come true? (you can select up to 5)
-
Question 2: Which prediction(s) would you most want to come true? (you can select up to 5)
You can also drop your votes in the comments below (i.e. Think: #18, #20; Want: #5, #6, #8) if you want.
Let’s see what patterns emerge from our collective crazy wisdom! And if these moonshot predictions sparked ideas or made you think, ‘Actually, I’m working on something like this…’, hit reply or leave a comment. Hopefully we can turn this thought experiment into real conversations about category-creating opportunities in travel.
What happens next? I’ll analyze the results, and share a follow-up post on the most popular predictions. Plus, I’ll connect with industry players who might be turning these wild ideas into reality. Stay tuned!
Until next time,
Mauricio
If you like Travel Tech Essentialist, please consider sharing it with your friends or colleagues. If you’re not yet subscribed, join us here:
