Travel in 2025 and beyond
Economics plays an important role in travel — but it’s not the whole story. People pack their bags for all kinds of reasons: business meetings, yoga retreats, food exploration, adrenaline rushes or to watch their favorite athlete compete. Every trip has its own purpose, and even when economic uncertainty looms, those personal motivations can still drive us to explore.
Today’s economy faces policy changes and broader geopolitical dynamics. This volatility carries real risks: if the broader economy slows down, consumers may adjust their discretionary spending, becoming more cautious about how and where they employ their purchasing power. This could have a ripple effect on travel decisions, a risk that should not be ignored.
However, not all sectors are equally affected with much of the recent policy focus — particularly tariffs — having largely targeted the goods sector. This means the services sector, including travel, may feel less direct impact. We could also see shifts in the decision of where and when to travel in response to political uncertainty. Indeed, there are signs that travel decisions may have already shifted, as can be observed from travel bookings and cross-border spending data.
To explore these evolving trends, the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) drilled into unique, real-time data that paints a complete picture of the travel economy. Our fresh insights uncover what’s shaping travel choices today — from top-trending summer destinations and key motivators like wellness, adventure and unique sporting events, to the effects of currency fluctuations and fraud, and the evolving landscape of commercial travel. These unique perspectives will help chart a way forward through challenging and uncertain economic terrain.
Top themes of the 2025 travel economy
Flight booking data reveals the global destinations gaining momentum — and what’s driving shifts in popularity.
After coming in second last year, Tokyo is 2025’s #1 trending summer destination, leading a list dominated by the Asia-Pacific (AP) region.
When choosing a destination, travelers consider a variety of factors including economic, but also to satisfy something on their bucket list. The Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) leveraged OAG data to discern key insights on movement and shifts in travel preference. 1 Analyzing OAG data on flight bookings through March for travel this summer (June through September), and comparing each destination’s current share to its 2024 share, MEI identified the 15 highest-trending destinations: that is, those with the largest relative gains in travelers.
According to MEI’s analysis, Tokyo and Osaka will be the top two trending global tourist destinations this summer, with the largest increase in tourism demand relative to previous levels, continuing last year’s trajectory. Its currency depreciation, although it has recently partially reversed, presumably is still a significant factor making it a desirable place to visit (see “How currency swings shape cross-border travel”). While important, foreign exchange (FX) is just one of many factors that drive travel decisions. Paris, a perennial favorite, fell into third just behind Osaka.
The other destinations on the list highlight the importance of value — particularly in the Asia Pacific region — and the appeal of beach towns, such as Mallorca, Spain; Nha Trang, Vietnam and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Looking ahead, the economic and political environment can shape travel preferences. A reduction in travel to the U.S. from Canada and Europe has been measured by some already. According to the International Trade Administration (ITA), the number of travelers flying between the U.S. and Western Europe was down 1.2% YOY in March. 2 Similarly, data from Statistics Canada shows that vehicle travel returning to Canada from the U.S. is down 32% YOY in March. 3 This is a period of significant change with a dynamic political landscape, and while the current data may not fully predict the future, it is important to keep monitoring the situation.
To see where tourists from each market are traveling in 2025, tap the dropdown below to change the point of origin:
AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA MIDDLE EAST SOUTHWEST PACIFIC US and CANADA WORLD change in share of bookingsDestinations for summer travel (June-September) 2025Note: PPT difference between the share of total bookings for June through September 2025 compared with June through September 2024. Bookings were calculated usingdata through March for each yearTop emerging destinations, relative to same time last year, for summer travel from WORLDTOKYOOSAKAPARISSHANGHAIPALMA DE MALLORCASEOULBEIJINGMADRIDRIO DE JANEIROSINGAPORENHA TRANGREYKJAVIKFUKUOKAHURGHADASHARM EL-SHEIKH0%0.1%0.2%0.3% SOURCE: OAG, MASTERCARD ECONOMICS INSTITUTE
To identify the cities with the biggest jumps in popularity, MEI calculated the change in flight bookings to each destination between 2019 and 2024 using data from OAG. A few observations:
- The top emerging destinations were Tokyo, Japan; Jeddah, Saudi Arabia and Osaka, Japan. Amid the depreciation of the Japanese Yen (JPY), Tokyo became the most visited city in the world in 2024 — displacing Bangkok, which had held the top spot for the past decade.
- Recent reforms made it easier to travel to Saudi Arabia which spurred a rise in passenger traffic to Jeddah and Riyadh. The government’s economic diversification efforts have also attracted newcomers: Investment in massive projects has created jobs and boosted business travel, while the development of tourism and leisure infrastructure is turning the kingdom into an emerging leisure destination.
- A surge in European visitors boosted Tirana, Albania, into the top 15. In fact, Tirana gained the largest increase in European visitors — led by tourists from Italy — of any city in 2024.
- Buoyed by a strong U.S. dollar, many Americans chose to travel abroad over the last few years, from Cancun to Tokyo to Rome.
View the full report with interactive charts via this link.
