That the persona of Donald Trump stirs strong emotions is clear. The same can be said about his policies. In particular his trade policy is seen by many non-Americans as an attack on long-standing friendships. The way Trump forces countries into (trade) concessions rubs so many the wrong way that they no longer view the U.S. as a reliable ally. In that light, economic shifts are taking place with major consequences, including for the number of visitors to the United States—and therefore for the U.S. hospitality sector.
According to the National Travel and Tourism Office (NTTO), the number of “overseas” visitors (i.e., excluding Mexico and Canada) declined in 5 of the last 6 months (Feb–July). Year-on-year, July showed the following steep drops: Germany (-14.7%), China (-13.8%), Switzerland (-12.7%), the Netherlands (-7.2%), and India (-5.5%). All five of these countries showed an acceleration of decline compared to June.
The numbers from January 2025 through July, where available (not for Canada and Mexico), present a mixed picture. Africa shows a sharp decline but is small overall (319,064 visitors). The major markets outside Canada and Mexico are Asia and Western Europe, which show declines of 2.61% and 2.28%, respectively. South America, another big market, shows a modest increase of 0.75%.
International visitors (YTD July 2025 vs. 2024):
- Overseas: -1.55%
- Africa: -6.05%
- Asia: -2.61%
- Caribbean: -3.19%
- Central America: +3.11%
- Eastern Europe: +3.18%
- Western Europe: -2.28%
- Middle East: +0.16%
- Oceania: -3.26%
- South America: +0.73%
Canada & Mexico (YTD May 2025 vs. 2024):
- Canada: -16.76%
- Mexico: +13.87%
(Source: National Travel and Tourism Office)
Year-on-year comparisons aren’t everything, of course. The overall trend in visitor numbers had been positive, and NTTO had forecast a 6.5% rise before Trump rolled out his policies. Apart from Mexico, no market shows growth anywhere near that level. The data clearly indicates a break in the trend.
Canada and Mexico account for about 50% of all foreign visitors to the U.S., and here too the picture is mixed: Canada shows a steep drop while Mexico posts a strong increase. Canada’s decline is largely attributed to Trump’s persona; his remark that Canada should become the 51st state of the U.S. angered the average Canadian so much that they expressed it both with their feet and at the ballot box. The number of Canadians visiting the U.S. in the first five months of 2025 fell 16.8% compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the Canadian opposition candidate—once far ahead in the polls—saw his lead vanish, ultimately losing the election.
But the figures also show that Trump’s persona cannot possibly be the only reason for these declines. After all, Trump also lashed out at Mexico, yet Mexican visitor numbers rose sharply. Similarly, visitor numbers from Italy grew by more than 8% in the first seven months (year-on-year). In short, Trump’s persona likely had varying effects on visitor numbers depending on the country of origin.
The economic impact of Trump’s trade policy, however, is logically greater. Uncertainty for businesses, both in the U.S. and abroad, hurts the investment climate. This negatively affects economic growth, which in turn dampens visitor numbers. The longer this uncertainty persists, the larger the effect—a dynamic that has already pushed many countries into trade deals favorable to the U.S.
Even after a trade agreement is reached, some of the uncertainty remains, since Trump is quick to threaten new tariffs at the slightest provocation (see Canada).
Another layer of uncertainty comes from Trump’s onshoring/reshoring policies. Many companies are reconsidering investments abroad in favor of investing in the U.S. The extent of the negative economic effects for the rest of the world—and their impact on travel to the U.S.—remains to be seen.
These negative “Trump effects” will not disappear in the short term. However, Trump’s policies should not be seen as the sole cause of weak economic performance in other countries either. Germany, for instance, stands out in Europe (negatively): its economy has suffered a steep downturn. Yet Germany’s malaise started before Trump took office. Other factors are at play there, such as the war in Ukraine, high energy prices/the green transition, Chinese competition, falling exports to China, political shifts, and more.
For all countries, economic performance—and the associated visitor flows to the U.S.—depends on many factors. It would be unwise to point only to Trump and his policies as the driving force behind declining visitor numbers.
In other words, the drop in visitors to the U.S. has many causes, of which Trump’s persona and policies are only two. So far, the net effect appears negative. Whether this remains the case is still uncertain as so many factors are in play.
