General sentiments from the 2025 Hunter Hotel Investment Conference at the Atlanta Marriott Marquis surrounded the ambiguous state of the hospitality industry and hotel investing environment. Each hospitality company relates to the uncertainty in different ways—a management company and a REIT would have different perspectives, for example—but one thing remains the same: the data. While perspectives can vary, the numbers will tell the story of the industry at the current moment. The “Key Statistics Shaping Hospitality in 2025” panel shed light on the data from four different companies and speculated on potential repercussions.
The following data points stood out during the panel:
1Forecasts point toward a potential slowdown.
Jan D. Freitag, national director, hospitality analytics, CoStar Group, noted that multiple forecasting engines increased their recession perspective—Oxford Economics, specifically, from 20 percent to 30 percent. While CoStar is planning to update its forecast, Freitag stated that the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 expect some data to balance despite the reality of the uncertainty of the current state of the hospitality industry. However, Freitag said, “We’re putting our neck way out and have a forecast for ’26, for ’27, but take that with a truckload of salt. That will be revised.” Freitag also mentioned the need to monitor external factors and the bifurcation in performance between the upper and lower ends of the market.
2Leisure-focused segments might be more resilient.
Mark Lomanno, partner and senior advisor, Kalibri Labs, presented data focused on demand trends within the hospitality space. Specifically, “about 55 percent of all demand is leisure, and that’s what propped up the industry over the past couple of years. And that’s good for a number of reasons. One is they stay longer; two is they’re less price sensitive than corporate travelers and group travelers.” Because leisure travel is probably going to remain flat, leisure-focused hotels might be more resilient than other sectors. As Lomanno noted, “Uncertainty equals restraint.”
3Decline in profit margins shows high profits seen during the COVID-19 pandemic recovery were not sustainable.
Robert Mandelbaum, research director, CBRE Hotels Research, noted that in 2021, “we saw revenues rise and expenses decline,” and in 2022, “things started to recover. We saw expenses rise, but we had great revenue growth over COVID.” As profit margins reached “record highs,” some hoped it would be normal for the industry going forward. “Well, that wasn’t sustainable,” Mandelbaum said, and the past two years saw a “lack of revenue growth. We’re now behind in terms of inflation, and we’re behind in terms of covering expense growth.”
4Short-term rentals also experience unpredictability, yet there’s a decline in growth and a lack of new supply in the market.
Jamie Lane, senior vice president of analytics, chief economist, AirDNA, shared that while the short-term rental market has performed relatively well, there is unpredictability with supply growth. In general, demand is moving toward larger listings, and the industry has the ability to reinvent itself based on demand trends. However, Lane noted the industry is not without its fair share of uncertainty. “You would think there’d be a whole lot more supply coming into the short-term rental industry. … Now, we’re actually seeing, as we get into 2025, there are 60 markets that actually see declining supply,” Lane added.
