MKG Consulting annually provides numerical forecasts on the evolution of the main European hotel markets. These predictive analyses are based on data collected and analyzed month by month. Here, we provide just a glimpse of the dozens of pages of detailed forecasts available on the MKG Consulting website.
The “pioneering” markets, France and the UK, were the first to move past post-COVID dynamics and already experienced a relative slowdown in activity during certain months of 2024. These two countries are likely to perform better in 2025, although expected KPI growth rates remain below their historical standards and still lag long-term averages.
Markets in other Northwestern European countries, particularly Germany (and the entire DACH region) and the Benelux, are preparing to enter a phase of “alternating slowdowns” (months of expansion/contraction), similar to what the UK and France have recently experienced. While 2024 was still positive due to catch-up effects (their 2019/2024 growth remained below other European markets), a slowdown in KPIs and declining occupancy rates were observed in recent months, signaling the end of the structural rebound cycle.
Southern European markets continue to benefit from strong growth dynamics recorded in 2024, notably with significant occupancy rate increases amidst moderate supply growth. This should help sustain pricing in 2025 and justify further RevPAR growth, despite an anticipated decline in visitation. 2025 represents the typical entry into a cycle characterized by rising average rates and stagnating or declining occupancy levels, with “top-line” increases generating significant “bottom-line” leverage due to controlled compression of volumes.
For a detailed analysis by MKG Consulting experts, covering each country and segment, visit the MKG Consulting website.
