Amid ongoing macroeconomic pressures, waning consumer confidence, and shorter booking windows, hotel performance for the upcoming Fourth of July holiday is drawing more scrutiny than in past years. Industry analysts are watching closely to gauge how well the sector navigates this important summer leisure travel period. Fortunately, our forward-looking data offers encouraging signs and reasons for optimism.
Shorter booking windows
Recent Forward STAR data reinforces what we’ve been hearing consistently from clients: booking windows have shortened, largely due to ongoing economic uncertainty.
The coming weeks in June highlight that trend, as occupancy on the books continues to move higher than last year as we get closer to stay dates. For example, as of 12 May, the week ending June 28 was running about 1 percentage point behind the same time last year in the Top 25 Markets. As we’ve gotten closer to the end of June, that variance has improved, and occupancy on the books is now more than 1% ahead of this time last year.
Similar 4th of July holiday ahead?
Occupancy on the books for the holiday week has been pacing almost 1% ahead of last year since 28 April, with some acceleration over the past two weeks.
Remember, however, that the 4th of July fell on a Thursday last year, which meant occupancy was more muted. Further, the week of the 4th of July last year produced the lowest weekly occupancy level (64%) of the summer in the Top 25 Markets, sitting at 59% on week nights (Sunday-Thursday) and 76% on the weekend (Friday-Saturday). Only Labor Day week posted a lower occupancy between March and November last year.
Forward STAR data for 2025 shows occupancy on the books for the holiday weekend trending similar to last year. However, the full week (29 June-5 July) is trending slightly above the holiday week last year.
Most of the growth is coming at the start of the week, with occupancy on the books up 6% for Sunday night, 4% for Monday night, and 3% for Tuesday night. This occupancy premium over last year has been increasing as we get closer to the holiday, driving the acceleration for the week as a whole.
With the 4th of July falling on a Friday this year, the start of the week may be more open for business travel, pushing higher occupancies on the books for Sunday through Tuesday. We are not seeing this same trend across the following two weeks (6-12 July and 13-19 July), as weekend occupancy is trending stronger versus last year than weekday.
A few markets will also receive a lift from later-round matches in the FIFA Club World Cup at end of June and beginning of July.
We will release full analysis of the actualized results from the holiday on Friday, 11 July.
About CoStar Group, Inc.
CoStar Group (NASDAQ: CSGP) is a leading provider of online real estate marketplaces, information, and analytics in the property markets. Founded in 1987, CoStar Group conducts expansive, ongoing research to produce and maintain the largest and most comprehensive database of real estate information. CoStar is the global leader in commercial real estate information, analytics, and news, enabling clients to analyze, interpret and gain unmatched insight on property values, market conditions and availabilities. Apartments.com is the leading online marketplace for renters seeking great apartment homes, providing property managers and owners a proven platform for marketing their properties. LoopNet is the most heavily trafficked online commercial real estate marketplace with thirteen million average monthly global unique visitors. STR provides premium data benchmarking, analytics, and marketplace insights for the global hospitality industry. Ten-X offers a leading platform for conducting commercial real estate online auctions and negotiated bids. Homes.com is the fastest growing online residential marketplace that connects agents, buyers, and sellers. OnTheMarket is a leading residential property portal in the United Kingdom. BureauxLocaux is one of the largest specialized property portals for buying and leasing commercial real estate in France. Business Immo is France’s leading commercial real estate news service. Thomas Daily is Germany’s largest online data pool in the real estate industry. Belbex is the premier source of commercial space available to let and for sale in Spain. CoStar Group’s websites attracted over 163 million average monthly unique visitors in the third quarter of 2024. Headquartered in Washington, DC, CoStar Group maintains offices throughout the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Asia. From time to time, we plan to utilize our corporate website, CoStarGroup.com, as a channel of distribution for material company information. For more information, visit CoStarGroup.com.
This news release includes “forward-looking statements” including, without limitation, statements regarding CoStar’s expectations or beliefs regarding the future. These statements are based upon current beliefs and are subject to many risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from these statements. The following factors, among others, could cause or contribute to such differences: the risk that future media events will not sustain an increase in future occupancy rates. More information about potential factors that could cause results to differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those stated in CoStar’s filings from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including in CoStar’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and Forms 10-Q for the quarterly periods ended March 31, 2024, June 30, 2024, and September 30, 2023, each of which is filed with the SEC, including in the “Risk Factors” section of those filings, as well as CoStar’s other filings with the SEC available at the SEC’s website (www.sec.gov). All forward-looking statements are based on information available to CoStar on the date hereof, and CoStar assumes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
