New data from Fiserv shows that small restaurants/independents experienced modest sales growth in June (+0.4%) compared to June 2024. However, their month-over-month declines in transactions (-2.6%) and foot traffic (-2.5%) eroded much reason for optimism.
According to Fiserv’s Small Business Index, this negative monthly trend followed a 5.6% month-over-month drop from April to May.
The overall index for small businesses shows a 1.4% month-over-month sales decline, reflecting a broad slowdown in consumer activity across segments, not just restaurants. Foot traffic overall was also negative month-over-month, at -2%.
“Small business sales continue to be impacted by economic uncertainty, causing many consumers to spend with more caution,” Fiserv chief data officer Prasanna Dhore said in a statement. “Discretionary spending declined again in June, and consumers diverted more dollars to the essentials.”
This downward trend, derived from point-of-sale transaction data across approximately 2 million small businesses, reflects recent surveys from PopMenu and KPMG indicating that consumers plan to pull back on their restaurant spending as concerns over the economy continue.
The Fiserv index shows that just 13 states experienced a positive performance in foodservice and drinking places in June, versus 34 in May. Alaska (5%) grew the most, followed by Delaware (1%), and Nebraska (0.5%).
Fiserv’s June report comes as the National Restaurant Association released a mixed mid-2025 outlook. The association notes that concerns over tariffs and potential ripple effects have impacted confidence and slowed momentum, while risks remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions and policy shifts. Amid the challenges, however, the United States economy continues to show signs of resilience, as evidenced by Thursday’s June jobs report showing the unemployment rate dipping to 4.1% and continued modest wage gains.
“Still, caution persists — particularly within the restaurant sector — where traffic, sales, and hiring trends have been mixed so far this year,” the association noted. “Looking ahead, the National Restaurant Association projects slower growth in both (gross domestic product) and employment, with the economy expected to expand by 1.5% in 2025 and 2026. Inflation is likely to accelerate in the second half of this year following a period of post-pandemic moderation. While a modest expansion remains the base case, elevated downside risks continue to cloud the outlook.”
Contact Alicia Kelso at [email protected]
