UK aviation will fail to meet the government’s sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) target for 2030, according to the Climate Change Committee which advises ministers.
The committee forecasts SAF will comprise just 6% of UK aviation fuel by 2030, not 10% as required under the SAF Mandate introduced in January.
It calculates this will rise to 17% by 2040 and 38% by 2050, noting: “This is lower than the government’s SAF trajectory due to expected supply constraints.”
The Climate Change Committee’s 7th Carbon Budget reported aviation accounted for 8% of UK CO2 emissions in 2023 despite emissions being 10% down on the 2019 level, making it “the sixth highest-emitting sector” in the economy.
It warned air travel would account for 9% of UK CO2 emissions this year and 11% by 2030, rising to 27% by 2040 and make it the highest-emitting sector even with a 17% reduction in emissions in line with a ‘Balanced Pathway’ projection by the committee.
The committee noted the non-CO2 warming effects of aviation have tripled since 1990 and warned these “are likely to have a high warming effect” and “must be addressed.”
It reported aviation emissions in 2023 had risen 69% on 1990 levels despite “improving efficiencies”, with an increase in international leisure flights the biggest factor, pointing out: “Survey data shows that in 2010, 78% of passengers were travelling for leisure and 22% for business. By 2023, 86% were travelling for leisure and 14% for business.”
The committee concluded the sector can still reach Net Zero emissions by 2050 “through the roll out of SAF, improved efficiencies, electrification of planes, managing growth in aviation demand and engineered removals [of CO2 from the atmosphere]”.
But it argued: “The cost of decarbonising aviation and addressing non-CO2 effects should be reflected in the cost to fly. This will help manage growth in aviation demand”, although “Government may need to take additional demand management measures.”
This would require “relatively large changes in price”, the committee noted, with “potential levers” to include: SAF and carbon removal costs “impacting demand through higher ticket prices”; increased air passenger duty “to better reflect the emissions impact of flying”; and a frequent flier levy which rises “with the number of flights an individual takes”.
The committee also suggested limiting airport expansion but removed the call for a moratorium on expansion which was in its last report.
