Build a Pickup-Driven Forecast Your Team Can Trust
A forecast is only as good as its inputs. If Sales, Revenue, and Marketing are looking at different numbers, you aren’t forecasting—you’re guessing.
Start by defining clear roles to eliminate silos:
- Revenue Management: Owns demand modeling, pricing, and the pickup report.
- Marketing: Owns the campaign calendar and projected traffic/conversion impact.
- Sales: Owns the B2B pipeline, including conversion probabilities for tentative groups.
- Operations: Owns capacity constraints (labor) and cost implications.
Center the Process on Pickup
The heartbeat of your strategy should be the pickup report. This reveals how many new bookings were added over a specific period for future arrival dates, highlighting booking velocity.
If your team relies solely on “On The Books” (OTB) totals, you miss the trend. You’ll need to include a pace report to make the speed easier to understand. Is your booking velocity for next month faster or slower than the average or your expectations?
Pro Tip: Choose methods that match the horizon.
- Short-term (0–14 days): Use exponential smoothing for pickup by day of arrival.
- Mid-term (1–3 months): Combine pickup curves with event calendars and group pipeline overlays.
- Long-term (Budgeting): Use scenario planning (optimistic/pessimistic) based on macro demand.
Note: Ensure everyone agrees on definitions, specifically how cancellations and “wash” (reduced group block pickup) are treated. A forecast without a realistic wash factor is a fiction.
Connect the Forecast to Commercial Levers
A forecast creates value only when it triggers action. You must translate pickup signals into coordinated moves across price, promotion, and product.
Create an “If This, Then That” playbook for your team so they know precisely how to react to the data.
The Hierarchy of Action
When pace is below plan for a target segment, do not immediately slash rates.
That destroys flow-through. Instead, follow this sequence:
- Visibility First: Increase Metasearch bids and paid search spend for those specific dates.
- Fenced Value: Add value rather than dropping price. Offer upgrades, F&B credits, or length-of-stay perks to specific audiences (e.g., email database).
- Pricing: Consider public rate adjustments only if the first two steps fail to move the needle.
Align Product and Pipeline
Your forecast should dictate what you sell, not just how much you charge.
- Short Booking Window: Highlight instant gratification (late checkout, parking included).
- Long Booking Window: Promote experience-led stays (spa packages, local tours).
- B2B Alignment: If group pickup is lagging, sales reps should focus outreach on “shoulder nights” or split patterns to fill the gaps, rather than chasing peak dates that are already compressing.
Operational Cadence: Decisions That Stick
Stop treating the forecast as a monthly postmortem. It needs to be the centerpiece of a weekly commercial stand-up.
The 45-Minute Power Meeting
Hold a weekly meeting anchored by a single dashboard. Don’t read the report line by line; focus entirely on exceptions.
- Where is pace under-/overperforming?
- What is the root cause?
- What is the action plan?
The Decision Hierarchy
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Focus Area |
Key Decisions & Actions |
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Inventory controls, fenced offers, paid search bid tweaks. |
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Promotional calendar, sales outreach targets, and overbooking strategy. |
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Rate architecture, segment mix targets, labor & staffing plans. |
Closing the Loop
Finally, track your accuracy. Measure forecast error by horizon and segment, but more importantly, measure the value of your actions. Did that “Need Period” email campaign actually lift pickup? Did the price drop increase RevPAR or just volume?
When your team sees the direct link from pickup insight to profit outcomes, the forecast stops being a spreadsheet—and becomes your most reliable tool for profit.
