The U.S. Travel Association recently released its Travel Forecast, projecting little growth in spending for 2025 but a significant decline in international inbound travel.
Domestic travelers are forecast to spend $1.2 trillion in 2025, while international visitors are estimated to spend $173 billion this year, which makes travel America’s largest services export. That said, visits are expected to drop from 72.4 million in 2024 to 67.9 million in 2025, or by more than 6%.
“The latest forecast signals both opportunity and warning for America’s travel economy. While domestic travel is holding steady, the continued decline in international visitors threatens billions in spending and thousands of jobs,” the association stated.
That spending and those jobs overindex in the restaurant and hotel industries, especially in popular destination cities such as Las Vegas, where the largest sector is leisure and hospitality. New research from UNLV forecasts a 5.8% decline in the city’s visitor volume this year.
According to the National Restaurant Association, nearly three out of every 10 dollars spent at U.S. restaurants comes from travelers and visitors. While this varies significantly by market, virtually all restaurants derive at least some of their sales from customers who live outside of their area.
The reliance on tourism is highest in the fine dining segment, with an average of 41% of sales coming from travelers and visitors. One in four fine dining operators say visitors account for at least 60% of their annual sales. In the family dining, casual dining, and coffee-and-snack segments, roughly one-third of sales come from travelers and visitors. Travelers and visitors account for one in four dollars spent in the quick-service and fast-casual segments.
According to the association’s research, most restaurant operators say overall business conditions have deteriorated this year, with declining traffic and elevated costs dominating headlines. The decline in travel and tourism sales has exacerbated these challenges — 47% of operators say their sales from travelers and visitors in 2025 are lower than they would normally be in a typical year. Only 8% of operators say their tourism-related sales are higher, while 45% say they are about the same as normal.
The last time the industry was impacted by a material drop in tourism was during 2020, when COVID halted travel around the world.
If there is a silver lining, it’s that some forecasts suggest tourism will rebound in 2026 driven by major events such as the FIFA World Cup and America 250 celebrations.
Contact Alicia Kelso at [email protected]
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