Airfare affordability continues to be a structural challenge for tourism development in Latin America, as reflected in the analysis of airfare forecasts for the coming six months conducted by global tourism intelligence and strategic advisory partner, Mabrian.
The data reveals a mixed picture, with moderate increases, strategic readjustments, and steep declines, influenced by geopolitical factors and market dynamics that could redefine regional tourism competitiveness through the end of 2025.
Mabrian, part of The Data Appeal Company – Almawave Group, analysed average airfare forecasts for travel over the next six months on all regional, US, and European routes connecting seven key destinations in Latin America: Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Brazil, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico.
The analysis compares the projected prices published by online travel agencies (OTAs) for direct one-way flights in the same period in 2024.
During the Wings of Change Americas conference, organised by IATA in Bogotá on June 25 and 26, air industry experts highlighted the economic impact of air travel in the region, accounting for 8.3 million jobs and USD 240 billion in GDP.
However, according to IATA data, Latin American citizens take an average of just 0.65 flights per year, well below the 2.5 flights in North America or the 4.5 in Spain.
“Air connectivity provides opportunities for economic growth, fosters regional mobility, and strengthens Latin America’s attractiveness as a tourist destination,” explains Carlos Cendra, Partner and Director of Marketing and Communications at Mabrian.
“To boost air travel demand in Latin America, it is crucial to expand connectivity networks, accommodating more players and alternatives, and making air travel more accessible.”
According to Mabrian’s analysis, the forecasted performance of domestic airfares is mixed. While Argentina and Mexico recorded year-on-year declines of -10%, and Colombia -6.6%, countries such as Chile and Brazil experienced increases exceeding +10%, of +11.3% and +12.2% respectively.
In Peru, domestic prices remain relatively stable, with a variation of just +1.7%.
“Our data intelligence reveals a clear trend: average fares on routes connecting Latin America with the United States are consistently decreasing, in some cases by as much as -50% compared to the previous year,” states Cendra.
“Geopolitical factors are influencing this atypical behaviour, which represents an opportunity to stimulate US visits to Latin America toward the end of 2025.”
According to the expert: “This is also contributing to boost outbound tourism, both domestic and regional.”
