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127 – Luxury industry and economic certainty

  • Martin Soler
  • 16 October 2025
  • 6 minute read
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This article was written by Martin Soler. Click here to read the original article

Growth in luxury or shrinking luxury market and why. OpenAI says websites are dead. Dutch VAT forcing hotels to innovate again.

Hello,

I recently read that Luxury is dead again. And that the new generation just wants meaning. The generations theory is interesting, but I think there’s less to read in generations than in human aspiration.

PS: The most complete hotel brands chart ever made, we included a form to submit any errors, missing brands etc.

Best, Martin


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AI Won’t Fix Your Silos: Who to Keep and Who to Outsource
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AI Won’t Fix Your Silos: Who to Keep and Who to Outsource

Michelin Keys Category Standards?

Michelin Keys are out, with over 7,000 properties rated, the guide now recognizes experiences from eco-lodges to grand palaces. They say it’s less about luxury and more about exceptional storytelling through service; interesting concept. I have often commented that we need a system that blends professional reviews with guest reviews. I wonder how Michelin reviews compare to guest reviews today.

MICHELIN HOTEL GUIDE + VS GUEST (2024)⁺

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Private Members’ Clubs Evolve

Private clubs are transforming from elitist enclaves into multifaceted lifestyle ecosystems blending hospitality, wellness, and community. The market is forecasts to double by 2033, driven by younger, tech-savvy members. But as these clubs scale, the challenge will be balancing growth vs. exclusivity. Should we call it The Soho House effect?

MEMBERSHIP EVOLUTION
About me: I'm a fractional CMO for large travel technology companies helping turn them into industry leaders. I'm also the co-founder of 10minutes.news a hotel news media that is unsensational, factual and keeps hoteliers updated on the industry.  

OpenAI Declares the Website Dead

Kieran Flanagan’s recap of Greg Brockman’s comments on ChatGPT replacing websites is quite provocative, but maybe… In short: static web pages feel outdated compared to conversational interfaces that understand intent and context. While I think this is happening for search-and-pick user interfaces. I think there will still be curiosity to “deep dive” through a website to get a feeling of the place.

AI WEB EVOLUTION

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Hotels.com “Save Your Way”

Hotels.com’s new “Save Your Way” feature gives the option to save instantly or on future bookings. It’s a smart rewards move that will reward business travelers to save for their holidays. I’m not sure it really competes with hotel loyalty programs, since I think they cumulate in many cases. Smart hack for those who aren’t using corporate booking tools.

LOYALTY FLEXIBILITY

The Myth of Agentic Commerce

I admit this is echo-chamber-y, but still. Andrew Lipman argues that, despite the buzz, AI agents aren’t ready to autonomously shop for us. His critique argues that “agentic commerce” is more fantasy than frontier, retailers and platforms simply have no incentive to give up control. Like the metaverse before it, it’s an idea ahead of infrastructure. He argues, and I agree, that until consumers demand it and Amazon supports it, this one stays in the lab.

AGENTIC COMMERCE HYPE

Nike’s “Why Do It?” and the Power of Clarity

Nike’s new campaign signals a major brand pivot: from pushing action to questioning motivation. Clarity is the foundation of powerful branding. It’s not about changing slogans; it’s about aligning purpose, audience, and promise. Is this Nike getting back into motivational brand building? A great framework for brand.

BRAND REFRAMING

Deflagging Gains Ground

Independent, design-driven hotels are on the rise, and apparently, investors are paying attention. Cookie-cutter brand templates helped build standards (it was a good thing) but now it’s time to create story-rich, emotional spaces. Luxury brands like Dior and Gucci are jumping into hotel partnerships, the line between hospitality and lifestyle branding keeps blurring. More personality, less copy-paste.

BOUTIQUE HOTEL TREND

Dutch VAT Hike & Hotel Innovation

The Netherlands’ decision to raise VAT on hotel stays from 9% to 21% starting 2026 is forcing hoteliers to get creative fast. It isn’t the first time Dutch hotels get innovative. Regulations have forced them to invent new concepts, in fact I’d argue most new hotel concepts emerged from The Netherlands (citizenM, Zoku to name two). It is the healthiest reaction (innovation).

HOTEL TAX STRATEGY

The Rise of Luxury Hospitality Spending

McKinsey’s latest research projects that luxury tourism will outpace all other hospitality segments by 2028, reaching $391 billion in global spending. The Economist adds that experiences (rather than possesions) are driving this boom. Luxury will keep growing, are we really giving up possesions? I’m not totally sure. See my column below.

LUXURY GROWTH TREND
Podcast: I was invited to talk about AI in hospitality on this podcast, along with many other great industry thought leaders. A great discussion, we didn't agree on everything. Which made it more interesting.  

Opinion

Luxury goods apparently are selling less. Some think it is that Gen Z is too purpose driven. Maybe, it is something else. Image generated with Gemini

Is luxury, the canary in the coal mine of economic certainty?

Every few months, a new wave of headlines proclaims the “end of luxury.” Supposedly, the new generation doesn’t want to carry Vuitton monograms, buy Hermès, slip into Gucci loafers, or line up for Chanel bags. The argument goes that legacy luxury is outdated, that Gen Z is too practical, too purpose-driven, too minimalist.

I think every generation has a counter-culture phase. But we will always want more luxury. Even if we can’t afford it, we still want it. Maslow’s pyramid may not be perfect, but directionally it holds: once we cover survival, we climb toward status, aspiration, and comfort. And luxury watches, handbags, hotels or cars is simply that feeling of winning materialized.

If spending on luxury is dipping, I don’t think it signals the demise of the category. It’s far more likely a reflection of broader economic certainty (or rather uncertainty). Luxury is the perfect canary in the coal mine of economic cycles: when confidence dips, the first thing people trim is the nice-to-haves, however desirable it might be. It gets pushed off to later, but I dont think it gets cancelled.

Some of my family were out there in 1968, counter-culturing in the streets of Paris. Yet, as that generation aged, they got kids, jobs, built companies, invested in the stock market etc. Apple started off as a barefooted counter-culture company, today they’re the luxury brand of electronics. The rejection of luxury in youth didn’t kill it; they just weren’t the target audience at that time.

There’s also a cyclical pattern. Luxury shifts, probably more visibly than other industries (because of it’s nature). It shifts from loud monograms to “quiet luxury,” from products to experiences, from heritage to novelty. But the underlying desire remains unchanged: we strive for better, shinier, more exclusive things and deep down we want others to recognize it.

So when I see today’s chatter about the fall of luxury, I think we’re mistaking a short-term wobble for a structural collapse. My bet? We’re witnessing economic uncertainty and some analysts are confusing that with a generational stage-of-life gap, not the death of desire. Luxury is resilient.

And perhaps that’s the real lesson: don’t count out an industry that thrives on aspiration. Because aspiration never goes out of style.

PS: that Birkin bag on the image was made for a counter-culture icon of the 1970s.


• Death by Valuation: The Thrasio Lesson – Link

• The Science of Fandom – Link

• Seth Godin: The Platform and the Curator – Link

• Defining Basic Marketing Terms – Link

• The Complete Hotel Brands of the World Chart – Link⁺

• NEW: Hotel Design & Tech Benchmark Q4 2025 – Link⁺


Did you know: The word “folio” comes from Latin “folium,” meaning “leaf” or “sheet.” Originally, it referred to a page in a book. In hospitality, it evolved to mean a document or record where financial transactions are written, similar to pages of an account book. Word history Defined using Lomar Dictionary⁺
⁺ Note, articles that are published by companies or people I work with are tagged with the ⁺ symbol or Partner word. I’m adding this as a transparency. Previously I avoiding sharing content from partners to remain objective, but sometimes they have excellent articles that deserves being shared so to remain transparent, I’ll tag them.

Start writing today. Use the button below to create your Substack and connect your publication with Tell • Martin Soler’s Newsletter

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