The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% from September to November, and 2.7% versus November 2024, according to data released Thursday morning from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This is the first inflationary reading since September’s due to the federal government shutdown. September’s CPI showed that inflation increased 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year.
November’s CPI was lower than economists’ expectations of 3% to 3.1%.
That said, the food-away-from-home (restaurants) index continued to significantly outpace general inflation numbers, rising 3.7% over the last year. The index for full-service meals rose 4.3% year-over-year, while limited-service meals were up 3%.
Full-service meals ticked up from September, when they were 4.2% higher than in 2024, while limited-service inflation slowed down from 3.2%.
Menu prices jumped 0.5% over the two-month period from September to November, a material gain from 0.1% for the month of September. Full-service restaurant prices increased 0.6% over the two-month period from September to November, with prices averaging 0.4% growth each month. Limited-service menu prices increased 0.4% over the two-month period, with a monthly rate of 0.2%.
So far this year, prices for the food away from home category overall have averaged monthly growth of 0.3%, according to the National Restaurant Association.
Conversely, prices at the grocery/supermarket sector in November rose just 1.9% over the 12 months ending in November, marking a major cooldown from 2.7% year-over-year in September, which was the category’s highest inflationary level since August 2023. This drop is despite the meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index rising 4.7% over the last 12 months.
The widening gap between menu prices and grocery prices has dragged down same-store sales performance at restaurants, according to Kalinowski Equity Research, as consumers opt to cook at home more. This trend is reflected in restaurant traffic numbers — new data from Revenue Management Solutions shows that limited-service traffic fell 2.9% year-over-year in November. November marked the 32nd month in a row for which restaurant pricing outpaced grocery/supermarket pricing.
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