The Trump administration’s looser fiscal policy could provide a temporary boost to the economy, but tariffs and immigration policies could slow growth later
Nov 21, 2024
STR and Tourism Economics have lowered their US hotel forecasts for both 2024 and 2025, the companies announced on Tuesday. The revisions were attributed to ongoing inflationary pressures and uncertainty surrounding the incoming Trump administration. Despite these challenges, the companies emphasized that the fundamental factors supporting increased business travel remain stable.
Key takeaways
- The companies’ updated forecast reflects a significant downward revision to projected performance in June, followed by a smaller revision in August. STR and Tourism Economics now expect US hotel occupancy to reach 62.9% in 2024, slightly lower than the 63% forecast in August;
- Average daily rate (ADR) growth is expected to be 1.5% year-over-year in 2024, down from the previous forecast of 2%. Revenue per available room (RevPAR) is now forecast to grow 1.4% year-on-year, also down from the previous estimate of 2%;
- Looking ahead to 2025, the companies forecast US occupancy at 63%, ADR growth of 1.6% year-on-year and RevPAR growth of 1.8%. These figures represent a downgrade from the August forecast of 63.4% occupancy, 2% ADR growth and 2.6% RevPAR growth.
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