With companies reassessing costs and geopolitical tensions mounting, the second half of 2025 may test the resilience of the post-COVID travel rebound
May 26, 2025
Business travel to the United States dropped by 9% in April, highlighting growing caution among global companies amid economic uncertainty, strained international relations, and frustration with U.S. policies. While travel from the Middle East rose slightly, steep declines from key markets like Western Europe and Canada point to a broader cooling of demand. Industry experts warn this may mark the beginning of a sustained downturn for the U.S. business travel sector.
Key takeaways
- April decline: Business travel to the U.S. fell 9% year-over-year in April, according to preliminary government data.
- Regional breakdown:
- Western Europe: Down 17.7%
- Mexico (by air): Down 11.8%
- Middle East: Up 9.4% — the only region showing growth
- Canada drop-off:
- Air return trips to Canada fell 20%
- Car return trips dropped 35%
- Leisure vs. business trends:
- In Q1, business travel outperformed leisure travel (+7% vs. -6%)
- In April, leisure travel rebounded sharply (+13.8%) as Easter likely boosted tourist arrivals
- Advance bookings down: Cirium reports 12% fewer summer bookings from Europe to major U.S. cities
- Airlines respond: Several U.S. carriers withdrew financial forecasts, citing soft leisure demand
- Cautious outlook: Travel leaders, like JLL’s Leslie Andrews, expect companies to prioritize only “purposeful travel” for the remainder of the year
- Canada’s business sentiment:
- 71% of Canadian travel professionals expect a decline in 2025
- Rising reluctance due to tariffs, U.S. border issues, and geopolitical tension
- Convention & trade show impact: Declines could hurt U.S. cities reliant on international conferences
- Funding cuts hit exchange programs: State Department program reductions led to a 75% drop in related travel business for one firm
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