CBRE Reduces U.S. Hotel Performance Forecast, Lodging Demand Softens
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In Dallas, Texas, CBRE revised its 2024 U.S. hotel performance forecast, now expecting a 1.2% increase in RevPAR, down from an earlier 2.0% projection. The company predicts 2% RevPAR growth in H2 2024 due to international tourism and elections, despite a slowdown in the first half at 0.5% year-over-year growth. The GDP is forecasted to grow by 2.3%, with an average inflation rate of 3.2%. CBRE suggests a potential RevPAR peak of $100.54, reaching 114.5% of 2019's pre-pandemic levels, assuming a 1.1% ADR growth and a 0.1% occupancy increase. Travel demand remains high, with TSA year-to-date throughput at nearly 549 million passengers, marking a 5.4% year-over-year rise. However, challenges include weakening consumer spending and alternative lodging options. CBRE also warns of a possible economic slowdown into 2025 and anticipates less than 1% annual growth in lodging supply over the next three years due to high financing and construction costs.
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