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Alicia Kelso

48 posts
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  • 2 min

Restaurants are a bright spot amid a slow jobs report

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 5 September 2025
📈 The August 2025 jobs report showed a sharp hiring slowdown with only 22,000 jobs added, compared to 491,000 in the first four months of the year. Unemployment hit a 13-month high at 4.3%. Leisure and hospitality added 28,000 roles, while government employment fell by 16,000. Consumer sentiment dropped over 14% from last year, impacting spending. The restaurant industry faces pressures from reduced visits, especially by lower-income consumers, and rising labor costs, now at 36.5% of sales for full-service operators.
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  • 3 min

How restaurant operators can pivot in a challenging environment

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 28 August 2025
🍴 Kristin Hughes at the Food Fanatics event in Las Vegas highlighted challenges in the restaurant industry due to consumer pullback and rising costs. Quick-service restaurants excel in meal deals and loyalty programs. Fast-casual venues lead in digital ordering. Full-service focuses on Instagrammable spaces and diverse menus. Hughes recommended tactics like removing dollar signs on menus and enhancing loyalty programs to attract customers during off-peak hours, targeting smart consumer engagement and maximizing revenue.
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  • 4 min

Low consumer confidence is keeping restaurant traffic down

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 22 August 2025
📈 Restaurant traffic is down despite increased menu innovation and consumer-facing technology. In Las Vegas, David Henkes highlights low consumer confidence, which has dropped 14 index points since 2023, as a major factor. A 10-point decline in confidence could reduce traffic by 0.5% to 2% within two months. From 2023-2025, inflation and layoffs further erode confidence. July's menu prices rose 3.9%, surpassing a 2.7% CPI increase. QSR prices rose 1.3% YoY in Q2 2025, slowing from 10.6% in Q2 2023.
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  • 2 min

Washington, D.C. restaurant reservations plummeted following federal takeover

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 19 August 2025
🍴 President Trump's deployment of the National Guard to Washington, D.C. on Aug. 11 led to a significant drop in restaurant reservations, declining 16% initially and 31% by Aug. 13. There was a slight recovery by Aug. 16, but reservations remained down by 20% year-over-year. Prior to this, D.C. experienced 11 months of growth. 380 restaurants are participating in the Summer Restaurant Week, crucial for post-pandemic recovery. The Restaurant Association Metropolitan Washington remains optimistic about increased reservations.
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  • 3 min

What should restaurant operators be thinking about most? How to use technology

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 31 July 2025
🍽️ The restaurant industry's sales were at their slowest in a decade in 2024, particularly affecting small operators. Diane Hund from US Foods highlights the need for independents to focus on growth, despite challenges like high food and labor costs. Technological tools, like US Foods' MOXē, help with menu management and cost control. The Food Fanatics event on Aug. 19-20, 2025, in Las Vegas will address these issues with celebrity chefs and educational sessions.
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  • 3 min

New data shows restaurant visits per week have increased

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 15 July 2025
📈 Consumer sentiment showed improvement in June 2025, with dining participation rates rising to 77.3% from 76.4% in Q4 2024. Visits per week increased from 1.99 to 2.19. Despite this, 87% of trade-off households plan to reduce restaurant spending. Menu prices have outpaced groceries for 27 months, but median household income rose to $85,632. Trade-off consumers have increased to 34.5% in June. Restaurants are advised to entice these consumers with promotions and value offerings.
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Menu prices increase for the fifth straight month

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 15 July 2025
📈 Inflation rose to 2.7% annually in June, the highest monthly rise since January. Menu prices rose 0.4%, marking a 3.8% annual increase, while grocery prices increased 0.3% monthly and 2.4% yearly. Full-service meals rose 4% annually, and limited-service meals increased by 3.5%. Menu price growth was highest in the West at 4.1%. Restaurant prices have outpaced grocery prices for 27 consecutive months, with a 140 basis point gap favoring groceries.
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  • 2 min

Menu prices continued to climb in May

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 11 June 2025
💰 May saw a 0.1% rise in the consumer price index, with annual inflation at 2.4%, less than expected. Food prices increased by 0.3% monthly and 2.9% annually, while restaurant prices rose 3.8% year-over-year. Menu prices have been higher than grocery prices for 26 consecutive months, with a 160 basis point gap, down from 190. Egg prices dropped 2.7% but remain 41.5% higher than in May 2024. Inflation's impact on restaurant sales persists, despite easing compared to previous years.
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  • 3 min

The restaurant industry workforce reached a record high in May

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 6 June 2025
📈 May Jobs Report: 139,000 new US jobs in May, unemployment steady at 4.2%. Leisure and hospitality gain 48,000 jobs; restaurants add 30,200. Summer forecast: 490,000 jobs, up from last year's 459,000 but below pre-pandemic levels. Employment: 105,300 above February 2020; quick-service +2.6%, full-service -4.2%. Mountain states lead recovery: Idaho +16%, Nevada/Utah +14%. Wage pressure challenges persist.
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  • 2 min

Menu prices increased in April for the third month in a row

  • Alicia Kelso
  • 13 May 2025
💸 The Consumer Price Index rose by 0.2% in April, resulting in a 12-month inflation rate of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021. Food prices are up 2.8% from last year, with grocery prices falling 0.4% in April and menu prices increasing by 0.4%. Egg prices dropped 12.7% monthly but are still 50% higher than last year. Full-service meals rose 0.6% over the month, leading to a 4.3% annual increase. Restaurant pricing has outpaced grocery pricing for the 25th consecutive month, contributing to a 1.7% year-over-year decline in domestic QSR traffic in April. The RMS Q1 survey revealed 40% of U.S. diners spend less on restaurants, with 25% opting for grocery meals due to better value.
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