Christian Watts

📈 Three years ago, Google faced no threats to its dominance, but AI search systems may soon overhaul travel distribution. Travel websites could see traffic declines of 30%-50% as AI becomes the key interface. OTAs face existential threats, while LLMs like Google and ChatGPT are poised to dominate, potentially becoming $10 trillion companies. Customers will enjoy hyper-personalized travel planning but risk trust issues and algorithm dependence. Suppliers must adapt digital infrastructure to stay visible.

🏨 Google Travel's hotel search allocates only about 8% of the page to organic listings, questioning user awareness of sponsored content. With 54 options—1 direct, 53 OTAs, resellers, and affiliates—Google creates 'auction pressure'. An AI agent would narrow choices to 3-5: favorite brand, direct hotel option, and cheapest. Remaining options, including 50 OTAs, might disappear if they don't add value, challenging their sustainability.

📈 Web traffic from search will not reach zero. Booking sites like Expedia and Airbnb, although effective, may need to cut their 25% commission. 80% of websites offer no unique value, echoing similar information across the web. Despite this, transactions remain essential, emphasizing the need for unique, discoverable product information by AI models like ChatGPT. Companies must adapt, as many are currently in denial about these shifting dynamics.

💻 SEO experts face challenges as AI changes analytics. Searches are now initiated with diverse inputs—paragraphs, images, videos—rather than keywords. Iterative chat searches complicate tracking as responses build on previous answers. No-click interactions mean fewer trackable links. Offline LLMs in devices offer web-equivalent functionalities without visibility. Increasingly, AI agents complete tasks autonomously using MCPs and APIs, often without human oversight. Companies should publish comprehensive data on their websites to remain accessible to AI-driven inquiries.

🛫 In the travel industry, OTA executives are criticized for high commissions, up to 25%, and for not adding value or sharing customer data. Operators often choose to minimize their participation in the OTA channel due to these negative impressions. Complaints also include OTA's lack of brand display, sustainable models, and respect for industry operators. The impact of AI on this ecosystem is predicted to be significant.