Josiah Mackenzie

🏨 - Tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico have recently been partially reversed. - US hotel industry impacted by both the tariffs and the surrounding rhetoric. - Construction and renovation costs could increase, potentially elongating projects. - US rooms in construction have ranged between 150,000 and 160,000 for over three years. - Last year's supply percent change was 0.6%, below the long-term average of 1.7%. - Property Improvement Plans (PIPs) may be delayed or scaled back due to higher costs. - Canadian air inbound to the US dropped by 6-7% in March. - The World Cup will be in Spain, Portugal, and Morocco in 2030. - Hotel owners and operators are advised to focus on differentiation and service quality rather than lowering rates. - The conversation between hotel brands and owners is key to navigating brand standards and financial pressures. - Some investment funds are coming to an end and may put properties on the market. - San Francisco's hotel market is showing signs of recovery. - Data from CoStar and STR is used to inform operational strategies. - The Hotel Data Conference in Nashville is an annual event for hotel data enthusiasts. - The i92-APIS dataset from the Department of Commerce provides international travel counts. In the US hotel industry, fluctuating tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods impact construction and renovation costs, while rhetoric affects service delivery. With 150,000-160,000 rooms in construction consistently

📌 In the hospitality industry, optimism peaked in late 2022 due to interest rate cuts beginning in September and strong performance in urban travel, particularly international group and business demand. However, by 2023 and 2024, geopolitical developments and potential trade wars introduced uncertainty. While the fundamentals of travel demand remained robust, hotel investment decisions faced increased uncertainty from tariffs, immigration policies, and inflation, which could lead to higher interest rates. Despite global concerns, the success of individual hotels or hotel collections largely depends on local market conditions. Detailed market knowledge, understanding demand drivers, and leveraging third-party resources like STR and CoStar are essential. Immediate impacts from tariffs include increased construction costs and supply chain disruptions, while longer-term impacts might include reduced consumer discretionary spending, affecting travel demand. San Francisco's hotel market, hit by multiple challenges including the loss of conventions, tech company relocations, and a decrease in Asian travel, particularly from China, saw further declines in 2023 and 2024. Yet, JLL anticipates a recovery starting in 2025, with strong events returning, tech companies reestablishing offices, and investor interest rising, positioning San Francisco for potential growth. Overall, navigating uncertainty requires focusing on controllable factors, understanding local markets, and seizing opportunities during uncertain times.