New Vacation Rental Industry Outlook shows AI adoption led by the smallest operators, a reversal in OTA strategy, and market-data habits as one of the clearest predictors of confidence
Santa Rosa Beach, Fla., 5 October 2026 — More than three-quarters (76.8%) of US professional property managers expect revenue to grow in 2027, according to new research from short-term rental analytics platform KeyData¹. That confidence comes alongside expectations of a harder market, with 64.2% anticipating more competition for guests in the year ahead.
The findings are published in KeyData’s 2027 Vacation Rental Industry Outlook, released today. The annual survey of professional property managers across the United States marks a clear change from last year’s report, which was characterized by flat-to-modest growth expectations rather than broad expansion expectations.
Revenue confidence runs well ahead of pricing confidence
Optimism is not evenly spread across the revenue equation. While 76.8% expect revenue growth, 65.2% expect occupancy to rise and just 55.5% expect ADR (average daily rates) to increase. The gap suggests managers expect revenue growth to depend on a broader mix of demand capture, distribution, pricing, and portfolio execution rather than rate increases alone.
OTA reliance reverses direction
Distribution strategy has changed course since last year. In last year’s Outlook, managers planning to reduce OTA reliance outnumbered those planning to increase it. For 2027, 25.1% plan to rely more heavily on OTAs, compared with 17.8% planning to pull back.
AI adoption is led by the smallest operators
AI appears in the report for the first time this year and is already widely used, with 89% of property managers reporting at least one application. Adoption runs counter to the usual pattern for industry technology, with particularly high adoption among Extra Small managers and the lowest overall adoption rate among Extra Large managers. Guest messaging automation is the most common use case at 50.5%, followed by social media content at 42% and portfolio performance insights at 39.8%.
Regulation remains a local story
Regulatory conditions vary widely by market. Strict permitting or licensing requirements are the most commonly cited challenge at 39.5%, followed by rising occupancy taxes and tourism fees at 33.9%, and pushback from local residents or associations at 28.2%. At the same time, 28.5% of respondents report no major regulatory challenges at all.
Regular market-data review is associated with greater revenue confidence
One of the clearest patterns in this year’s data is the relationship between regular engagement with market information and revenue expectations. Among respondents who review market benchmarking data weekly, 87% expect revenue growth, compared with 64% of those who review it monthly or less often. The relationship is not simply a matter of greater frequency: respondents reviewing data daily or every few days report 79% revenue optimism, below weekly reviewers. Instead, the broader divide is between managers who engage with market data regularly and those who review it only occasionally. A similar pattern holds for the breadth of a manager’s technology stack, with revenue optimism rising from 63.6% among those using three or fewer technologies to 86.4% among those using nine or more.
Sally Henry, VP of Market Intelligence and Insights at KeyData, said: “Managers are heading into 2027 expecting to grow, and they are being realistic about what that will take. Revenue confidence sits well ahead of rate confidence, suggesting operators expect growth to depend on a broader mix of demand capture, distribution, pricing, and portfolio execution rather than rate increases alone. What also stands out in this year’s data is the relationship between regular market-data use and revenue confidence. Managers who engage with market benchmarking data consistently are entering 2027 with stronger growth expectations than those who review it only occasionally. While that relationship does not mean one causes the other, market-data review habits are something operators can actively adjust, making the pattern worth watching.”
The leading owner retention priorities have stayed consistent year over year, with financial performance (76.8%) and communication and relationship quality (73%) remaining the two factors managers most associate with owners staying in a program. With competition expected to rise and managers less confident in ADR growth than in revenue or occupancy growth, the 2027 results point toward a year in which growth is contested rather than assumed.
Read the full 2027 Vacation Rental Industry Outlook here.
About KeyData
KeyData is the leading performance analytics and benchmarking platform for the short-term rental industry. Trusted by property managers, owners, investors, and destination organizations worldwide, KeyData delivers the most accurate, real-time insights available across 500+ global markets. With 45+ KPIs, intuitive dashboards, and daily updates, KeyData empowers users to make smarter management, marketing, and growth decisions. Learn more at www.keydata.co.
