Market Trends

📊 Feb 20, 2026: International travel to the U.S. remained sluggish, with a 4.2% drop in overseas arrivals in January, marking nine months of decline. Visitor numbers are only 83.5% of 2019 levels. Declines were noted from Western Europe, Asia, Africa, and Oceania, with Asia and Africa seeing the steepest drops. Major source countries like China, India, Germany, France, and the UK reported fewer visitors. Policy uncertainties, like proposed visa-related social media disclosures, may deter future travelers.

🏨 Feb 20, 2026: The global hotel construction pipeline hit a record with nearly 16,000 projects and over 2.4 million rooms. Dominated by the U.S. and China, which make up 62% of projects, rapid growth is also seen in India and Saudi Arabia. The forecast shows 2,600 hotels will open annually in 2026 and 2027. High-end segments and conversions are thriving, while emerging markets in Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa see notable growth.

⚽ U.S. hotel RevPAR is projected to rise by 1.7% during the World Cup months, boosting overall growth in 2026 to 0.6% after a 0.3% decline in 2025. Host cities will see a 3.8% annual RevPAR gain, with 12.7% in June/July, compared to 11.9% in 1994. ADR is expected to increase by 1.6%. The forecast accounts for weaker international travel and anticipates occupancy growth from June 12 to July 4, 2026.

📈 Q4 2025, U.S.: HotelData.com reports a decline in hotel performance. ADR fell from $181.52 in Q3 to $179.96 in Q4 (-0.9%), and RevPAR dropped 9.6% to $111.87. Year-over-year, 2025 saw ADR decrease 2.5% and RevPAR 6.3%. TrevPAR decreased 8.8% to $151.34. Budget assumptions exceeded reality, with ADR and RevPAR falling short by 3.8% and 5.0%, respectively. Performance varied regionally, with Northeast and West outperforming. Affluent spending sustained, while budget-conscious travelers cut back.

🏨 Simon Allison, CEO of HOFTEL, opened the Hotel Investment + Development Event (HIDE) discussing the viability of branded residences. Sam Barrell from Marriott noted EMEA's emerging market status in contrast to the mature US market. Marriott separates underwriting for hotels and residences, preferring co-located models. Hilton's Dan Wakeling highlighted the rise of standalone models in Dubai and Miami. Licence fees range from 2-4% of gross development value. Developers focus on balancing brand credibility with commercial gains.

📈 Hotels are shifting pricing strategies across three levels of pricing architecture. At Level 1, hotels use static pricing, risking lost ADR in high demand and slow conversions in low demand. Level 2 offers dynamic pricing, adjusting supplements based on demand and enhancing conversion. Level 3 uses Revenue Management Systems for predictive pricing, requiring extensive data mapping. Level 2 often offers the best profitability, utilizing strategic disparities against OTAs and margin arbitrage to increase direct bookings and revenue.

🌎 Feb 19, 2026: Global tourism is shifting towards emerging destinations, moving beyond traditional hubs. This trend is driven by travelers' preferences for authentic experiences, prompting hotels to adapt through storytelling and design. Infrastructure improvements, like better airports and transport, are enhancing access to these markets. Sustainability influences guests' choices, making eco-friendly and community-focused operations crucial. Hoteliers are advised to strategically position themselves in these fast-growing markets for competitive advantage. Source: BBC.

💸 Feb 19, 2026, Airbnb initiated a test allowing hosts to offer a 20% discount for improved search visibility and promotion to highly rated guests. This strategy mirrors Online Travel Agency (OTA) loyalty models, where discounts enhance ranking and conversion. If widely adopted, this discount-driven approach could pressure hotels to reduce prices to maintain visibility, impacting both short-term rentals and traditional hotels. The shift emphasizes the growing influence of platform algorithms over demand generation.

🏨 In 2025, the UK hotel market saw a decline from £6.6bn in 2024 to about £4.3bn. This shift signifies a move from large portfolio deals to single-asset transactions, with the biggest 2024 deal being Six Senses London at £180m. Domestic buyers gained ground as international investors paused. Notable 2026 prospects include the £500m Vastint Marriott Portfolio. As 2026 begins, alignment between buyers and sellers indicates a potential rise in activity.